{"id":700252,"date":"2024-04-26T10:20:01","date_gmt":"2024-04-26T00:20:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/?p=700252"},"modified":"2024-08-26T15:05:54","modified_gmt":"2024-08-26T05:05:54","slug":"fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/","title":{"rendered":"FX Analysis &#8211; EUR Rate divergence rhetoric fading?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With an ECB June cut looking likely, FX traders will start looking at the policy path beyond June. Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest being Governing Council member Madis Muller who seemed to stress exactly that point this week.<\/p>\n<p>EURUSD has been trading lately It appears that the divergence narrative &#8211; triggered by US data and the ECB in-meeting communication \u2013 has started to fade slightly, With EURUSD bouncing nicely off support at 1.06 over the last week. Improvements in the eurozone economic outlook probably playing a role in making the hawks reluctant to give in to a dovish policy path. A June cut is still the base case, but the accompanying message may fail to push rates much lower. That potentially limits how far EURUSD can fall on higher USD rates.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-406179\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/eurusd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1835\" height=\"865\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Today, the ECB publishes the CPI expectation surveys for March. In February, the 1-year gauge came in at 3.1% and the 3-year at 2.4%. Expectations are probably for a nudge lower in both surveys. Still, the dollar story should drive most EURUSD moves today: we see risks skewed to a higher dollar and do not see the pair being able to trade sustainably at 1.0700+.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With an ECB June cut looking likely, FX traders will start looking at the policy path beyond June. Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":48,"featured_media":693669,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2871],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-700252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex-trading"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>FX Analysis - EUR Rate divergence rhetoric fading? - Wixad<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FX Analysis - EUR Rate divergence rhetoric fading? - Wixad\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With an ECB June cut looking likely, FX traders will start looking at the policy path beyond June. Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Wixad\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-26T00:20:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-26T05:05:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/AdobeStock_684558699.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"770\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"475\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Lachlan Meakin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Lachlan Meakin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Lachlan Meakin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/es\/#\/schema\/person\/3be9f4cfdfb1cf0fc5ca416d0ad05509\"},\"headline\":\"FX Analysis &#8211; EUR Rate divergence rhetoric fading?\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-04-26T00:20:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-08-26T05:05:54+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/\"},\"wordCount\":230,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/es\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/AdobeStock_684558699.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Forex\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-eur-rate-divergence-rhetoric-fading\/\",\"name\":\"FX Analysis - EUR Rate divergence rhetoric fading? 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Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest ","link":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-the-uncertain-peak-assessing-the-current-state-of-inflation-and-interest-rates\/","type":"next","category":"forex-trading"},"previous":{"id":696770,"slug":"fx-analysis-usd-rallies-on-hawkish-fed-jpy-holds-above-154","title":"FX analysis \u2013 USD rallies on hawkish Fed, JPY holds above 154","date":"2024-04-17 09:29:42","excerpt":"With an ECB June cut looking likely, FX traders will start looking at the policy path beyond June. Most analysists are calling that the European Central Bank will not cut rates at consecutive meetings and deliver only 75bp of total easing in 2024 based on current data and recent comments from ECB members, the latest ","link":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-usd-rallies-on-hawkish-fed-jpy-holds-above-154\/","type":"previous","category":"forex-trading"},"category":{"slug":"forex-trading"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/700252","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/48"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=700252"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/700252\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/693669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=700252"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=700252"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=700252"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}