{"id":700080,"date":"2024-05-30T15:39:53","date_gmt":"2024-05-30T05:39:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/?p=700080"},"modified":"2024-11-01T10:19:10","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T23:19:10","slug":"plateauing-is-just-another-way-of-saying-stuck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/central-banks\/plateauing-is-just-another-way-of-saying-stuck\/","title":{"rendered":"Plateauing is just another way of saying \u2018stuck\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s make things very clear \u2013 Australia\u2019s inflation rate is plateauing in fact I would argue it\u2019s starting to reaccelerate in areas Australia can least afford. From a trading and momentum perspective this needs explaining.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Stronger Than Expected Print<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">April&#8217;s CPI data exceeded expectations and was at the very top of the surveyed range. Headline CPI increased by 3.6% YoY, well ahead of the consensus of 3.3% YoY. Seasonally adjusted, the increase was even higher at 3.8% YoY. Both the headline and core CPI rose for the third consecutive month. This is a major concern.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now, the monthly increase slowed sequentially to 0.2% MoM, annual headline inflation has risen every month in 2024. Then the RBA\u2019s core: trimmed mean inflation rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, and the ex-volatiles measure increased from 4.1% to 4.2%, with a three-month annualized rate of 5%, there is clear daylight between the RBA\u2019s target band of 2%-3% and the core measure of inflation<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here is the chart of the three main figures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Monthly CPI Indicator annual moment (%)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-406078\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/1-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"895\" height=\"542\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All this makes the RBA\u2019s \u2018narrow path\u2019 almost unattainable. A point not lost on the AUD and the ASX as seen by each one\u2019s initial reactions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>ASX 200 v AUD\/USD<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-406079\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/2-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"898\" height=\"369\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Refinitiv<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Broadening Persistence<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, with the passage of time the data is throwing up bigger concerns \u2013 and that is the persistence of price pressures in areas that make up large parts of the CPI basket.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The expectation for a weaker April CPI print was based partly on the skew towards goods in the sampling for the first month of the quarter which have been in structural decline.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, both goods and services contributed to the rise. Notable increases were seen in categories such as:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fruit and vegetables: from -1.2% YoY to 3.5% YoY<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Apparel: from 0.3% YoY to 2.4% YoY, with a 4% MoM increase<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Healthcare: from 4.1% YoY to 6.1% YoY<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The upside surprise was mainly due to significant increases in volatile expenditure items, including:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fruit: +7.3% MoM<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oils and fats: +4.6%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Women&#8217;s garments: +4.5%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Children&#8217;s garments: +6.8%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Accessories: +3.6%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Furniture: +3.3%<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">International holiday travel and accommodation: +11%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These items constitute 7.5% of the CPI basket and largely explain the forecast miss.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then you have clothing, which was expected to fall by 0.4%, rose by 4.1%. Furnishings, household equipment, and services, expected to be flat, all increased by around 0.6%. Recreation and culture, predicted to rise by 0.8%, actually went up by 2.3% in April.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This point was not lost on the Bond market with both the 3-year and 10-year Australian bonds surge on the data seen here:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Australian 3-yr and 10yr Bond reactions<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-406080\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"902\" height=\"371\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Source: Refinitiv<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(Blue 3-year, White 10-year)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Goods Prices Acceleration<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You can certainly explain away the volatile items as being affected by the early Easter period and a correction in the March data that had these items under pressure. But that ignores the seasonal and 3- and 6-month averages which are still high.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You can also ignore the volatile international travel and accommodation sector, which accounted for much of the forecast miss, but again you can\u2019t ignore the acceleration in goods prices where deflation was expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Categories such as clothing &amp; footwear, furniture, and other major household and electronic appliances, typically measured once per quarter, suggest that goods inflation will likely remain strong. The monthly measurement of goods inflation rose by 0.9% in April, adding 0.2 percentage points to the headline monthly CPI, marking the largest increase since April last year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Services Inflation \u2013 the \u2018sticking\u2019 point<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the floors with the April CPI print is that is was heavy on goods prices but light on services. This will be reversed in May &#8211; services prices are expected to remain fairly sticky. These are the areas the media like to quote like dentists and hairdressers. But somewhat cheapens the services that do move the dial, rents, telecommunications, financial service and insurances etc. these are big components of the CPI basket.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Considering the upside miss in April and the anticipated persistence of services inflation in May and June, the consensus now for Q2 headline CPI has been upwardly revised to 0.9% QoQ (range of 0.6% to 1.2%), that implys an annual reading of 3.7%. For core inflation (trimmed-mean), it has been adjusted to 0.8% QoQ, implying an annual reading of 3.8% &#8211; which is in line with the RBA\u2019s new forecast.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Implications for the RBA<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The implications from this CPI print will challenge the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It does pressure its assumption that the re-acceleration in inflation in Q1 would quickly revert. The unexpected strength in goods in particular coupled with sticky services suggests more persistent inflationary pressure than initially anticipated. It also shows that \u2018inflation psychology\u2019 is real \u2013 there is an argument to be made that spending has maintained on the \u2018idea\u2019 cuts would come because inflation is falling. Which has left enough demand in the economy to hold inflation up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, does this imply the RBA is about to raise rates?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here is the market\u2019s pricing on that idea.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-406081\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"889\" height=\"527\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Interestingly enough despite the hawkish risks, the likelihood of the RBA hiking rates is still tempered in the market and explains why the AUD in the hours since the CPI has moderated.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Why? Emerging signs of activity weakness.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Retail sales have been weak, corroborated by several companies reporting soft trading updates. Then there was Q1 construction work done which was released at the same time as the CPI data &#8211; significantly missed expectations (-2.9% QoQ versus the expected 0.5%) that is a huge miss.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Things the RBA will be watching over the coming week is the Fair Work Commission&#8217;s Minimum Wage decision on Monday and the Q1 GDP release next Wednesday. These events will be crucial in assessing the broader economic outlook and potential RBA policy responses. Anything that has an upside surprise should be seen as a AUD positive and an index negative.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The RBA will likely need to jawbone this result to further slow household demand for non-essential items, which is way we highlight the \u2018inflation psychology\u2019 term and the effect \u2018anticipation\u2019 is having. However, as the market and economist point out it is unlikely that the RBA will increase interest rates again, as this would disproportionately impact households already struggling under tight financial conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thus \u2013 we are stuck in this weird holding pattern and as other central banks around the world begin to cut rates it will attract flows to the AUD and its higher yields. There is a silver lining here too \u2013 as countries cut due to their respective disinflation moves and thus cheaper imports, this will benefit Australia\u2019s inflation problem but that is a way off and the AUD will remain attractive for a while to come.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let\u2019s make things very clear \u2013 Australia\u2019s inflation rate is plateauing in fact I would argue it\u2019s starting to reaccelerate in areas Australia can least afford. From a trading and momentum perspective this needs explaining.\u00a0 Stronger Than Expected Print April&#8217;s CPI data exceeded expectations and was at the very top of the surveyed range. Headline [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":94,"featured_media":700084,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2805],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-700080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-central-banks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Plateauing is just another way of saying \u2018stuck\u2019 - Wixad<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/central-banks\/plateauing-is-just-another-way-of-saying-stuck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Plateauing is just another way of saying \u2018stuck\u2019 - Wixad\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Let\u2019s make things very clear \u2013 Australia\u2019s inflation rate is plateauing in fact I would argue it\u2019s starting to reaccelerate in areas Australia can least afford. 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From a trading and momentum perspective this needs explaining.\u00a0 Stronger Than Expected Print April&#8217;s CPI data exceeded expectations and was at the very top of the surveyed range. 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What are the lessons from May?","date":"2024-06-05 10:02:24","excerpt":"Let\u2019s make things very clear \u2013 Australia\u2019s inflation rate is plateauing in fact I would argue it\u2019s starting to reaccelerate in areas Australia can least afford. From a trading and momentum perspective this needs explaining.\u00a0 Stronger Than Expected Print April&#8217;s CPI data exceeded expectations and was at the very top of the surveyed range. 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