{"id":699291,"date":"2024-05-14T10:55:34","date_gmt":"2024-05-14T00:55:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/?p=699291"},"modified":"2024-08-26T15:06:32","modified_gmt":"2024-08-26T05:06:32","slug":"banking-it-where-are-we-after-the-may-central-bank-deluge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/central-banks\/banking-it-where-are-we-after-the-may-central-bank-deluge\/","title":{"rendered":"Banking it \u2013 Where are we after the May Central Bank deluge?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What a week and a half we have had &#8211; Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s start at home:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>RBA and the AUD<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First, as expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates on hold at 4.35%, this was expected however the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 is fading fast. That was brought to light in the statement and Michele Bullock\u2019s press conference.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here&#8217;s a breakdown of the key points:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation Dynamics: The RBA notes that inflation is declining, albeit at a slower pace than expected. Services inflation is moderating gradually, driven by a labour market that the RBA now perceives as tighter than previously assessed. This indicates that the labour market conditions are exerting influence on inflation dynamics.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary Policy: The RBA views its current monetary policy stance as restrictive, with the cash rate level seen as supportive of achieving the target inflation range of 2\u20133%. However the Board did leave the door open for all movements both hikes and cuts if inflation doesn\u2019t return target inside a meaningful timeframe.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other Considerations: The RBA remains attentive to developments in the global and domestic economy, the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Thus, it remains data-dependent to policy decisions.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What caught our attention the most was the shift in language, particularity the downplaying of supply-side inflation and the attention on domestic demand which is still be too high leading to the same sticky inflation effect we are seeing in the US .<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The FX market reaction was mixed on all this, the initial reaction was bearish as the more hawkish bets of the previous few weeks unwound. However, the AUD remains one of the best performing currencies in the G10. With the RBA signalling that its next move may still be a hike it is likely to remain in the ascendancy against those FX players that are facing confirmed cuts in the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>BoE and GBP<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It seems like the Bank of England (BoE) is navigating through some interesting waters with its monetary policy decisions. The Board voted 7-2 vote to keep rates at 5.25%, but it was Governor Andrew Bailey&#8217;s remarks post the decisions that caught the market\u2019s attention hinting at a potential shift towards a sharper and faster accommodative stance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The fact that money markets are fully pricing in a rate cut by August, with a considerable probability assigned to a cut in June (44%), indicates a significant anticipation of policy easing. But Bailey\u2019s suggestion suggests it could be sooner and stronger than priced.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No doubt the BoE&#8217;s decision-making will indeed be influenced by upcoming data on wage settlements and inflation. But it\u2019s clear the impact on the GBP is one way and that is down, particularly when it\u2019s against the likes of the USD or AUD. It\u2019s a slight more mixed position against the EUR, SEK and CAD as their respective banks are also pointing to rate cuts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>ECB and the EUR<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The EUR is facing a mixed bag having eased through the year but is facing a complex interplay between economic data, market sentiment, and central bank expectations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For example despite some mixed German economic indicators, EUR managed to strengthen last week supported by positive developments in German exports and stronger Eurozone retail sales.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The real headwind for the EUR is the speculation of when (not if) European Central Bank (ECB) will rate cuts. Speculation is rising that next month\u2019s meeting will be the start point after the minutes from the last meeting reinforced dovish bets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Something to watch, the upcoming release of May\u2019s ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany could provide further insight into the economic outlook. If the sentiment continues to improve, particularly in the Eurozone&#8217;s largest economy, it could lend support to the EUR amid ongoing uncertainties surrounding ECB policy decisions. Watch the likes of EURGBP and EURSEK in particular.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Riksbank and SEK<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And finally, a mover. For the first time in 8 years the Riksbank lowered its key interest rate to 3.75% after a two-year period of rate hikes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Governor Erik Thedeen&#8217;s indication that two more rate cuts are likely in the second half of the year, contingent upon inflation remaining subdued, reflects the proactive stance aimed at supporting economic stability from the Bank.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Thedeen&#8217;s emphasized caution as the economic landscape and potential risks associated with policy changes could change the Bank\u2019s outlook. This could explain the reaction of the SEK to the rate cut a short-lived weakening then a recovery. This highlights the interplay between monetary policy as bigger players such as the BoE and ECB could overrun the dovishness in the smaller SEK for the bigger EUR and GBP.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What a week and a half we have had &#8211; Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves).\u00a0 Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024. Let\u2019s start at home: RBA and the AUD First, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":94,"featured_media":699296,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2805],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-699291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-central-banks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Banking it \u2013 Where are we after the May Central Bank deluge? - Wixad<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/central-banks\/banking-it-where-are-we-after-the-may-central-bank-deluge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Banking it \u2013 Where are we after the May Central Bank deluge? - Wixad\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What a week and a half we have had &#8211; Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves).\u00a0 Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024. 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Let\u2019s start at home: RBA and the AUD First, ","link":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/central-banks\/what-a-difference-a-cpi-day-makes\/","type":"next","category":"central-banks"},"previous":{"id":700254,"slug":"fx-analysis-usd-looking-vulnerable-after-soft-data","title":"FX Analysis \u2013 USD looking vulnerable after soft data","date":"2024-05-10 10:36:56","excerpt":"What a week and a half we have had &#8211; Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves).\u00a0 Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024. Let\u2019s start at home: RBA and the AUD First, ","link":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/articles\/forex-trading\/fx-analysis-usd-looking-vulnerable-after-soft-data\/","type":"previous","category":"forex-trading"},"category":{"slug":"central-banks"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/699291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/94"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=699291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/699291\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/699296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=699291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=699291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gomarkets.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=699291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}